Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
